LSU, Florida State and Arizona lead college football's seven boom-or-bust teams in 2024

Which college football teams will be the boom-or-bust teams in 2024?

Most college football fans would say Ohio State is the answer. The Buckeyes are looking to end their three-game losing streak to Michigan and have responded with several key additions in the portal. Ohio State also hired offensive coordinator Chip Kelly.

However, the Buckeyes are ranked No. 2 in eight publications' early preseason Top 25 lists. No one expects Ohio State to miss the 12-team College Football Playoff no matter what happens to the Wolverines, and the Buckeyes haven't lost more than two games in a single season since 2011. This isn't an up-or-down affair.

MORE: Sporting News Preseason Top 25

There are seven other schools that fit that label entering this season. They could win their conference. Or they could miss the College Football Playoff entirely.

Sporting News looked at teams from Athlon, The Athletic, USA Today, CBS Sports, ESPN, SI, 247Sports and, of course, Sporting News to find the teams with a high variance in their preseason ratings (11 spots or more). These are the teams that have a boom-or-bust feel going into the 2024 season.

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College football teams that either boom or go bust

LSU

Composite rank: No. 12. The Sporting News and CBS Sports have the Tigers at No. 10. The Athletic does not have LSU ranked. That's a deviation of more than 15 spots.

Details: Are the Tigers really a top-10 team? Brian Kelly led the Tigers to 10 wins each of the last two seasons, and that's an accomplishment considering the defense allowed 28 points per game. Will Missouri defensive coordinator Blake Baker change that? The offense lost Heisman Trophy winner Jayden Daniels and two first-round receivers in Malik Nabers and Brian Thomas Jr., and offensive coordinator Mike Denbrock returned to Notre Dame. LSU now has co-offensive coordinators in Joe Sloan and Cortez Hankton. Garrett Nussmeier is in place as the new starting quarterback. There are plenty of questions, but they can always fall back on their home-field advantage against Ole Miss (Oct. 12), Alabama (Nov. 9) and Oklahoma (Nov. 30). LSU lost its opening game to Florida State the last two seasons. That can't happen at Allegiant Stadium against USC in Las Vegas on Sept. 1.

Arizona

Composite rank: No. 17. The Wildcats were ranked No. 11 in a poll (Sports Illustrated) rather than No. 11 (247Sports.com). That's a deviation of more than 14 spots.

Details: On one hand, the Wildcats finished last season on a seven-game winning streak, Noah Fifita and Tetairoa McMillan are possibly the best quarterback-receiver connection in the country, and there's a lot of hype for a team that will be ranked in the preseason AP Poll for the first time since 2015. But the move to the Big 12, the coaching change from Jedd Fisch to Brent Brennan, and a brutal Big 12 road schedule that includes trips to Utah and Kansas State in September before an alphabet soup of BYU, UCF, and TCU have dampened those expectations a bit.

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State of Oklahoma

Composite rank: No. 20. The Athletic has Oklahoma State at No. 11, but CBS Sports has the Cowboys at No. 25. That's a deviation of 14 spots.

Details: The Cowboys have an experienced team in quarterback Alan Bowman and running back Ollie Gordon, the reigning Doak Walker Award winner who rushed for 1,732 yards and 21 TDs last season. Oklahoma State's offensive line features five seniors. The defense remains a question mark, however, and it's not easy to find a true Big 12 favorite. A three-game series against Utah, Kansas State and West Virginia from Sept. 21 to Oct. 5 will either improve or end Oklahoma State's playoff contention.

State of Florida

Composite rank: No. 18

Sporting News has Florida State at No. 7, but CBS Sports has the Seminoles at No. 20. That's a deviation of 13 spots.

Details: That was a bit surprising considering Mike Norvell led the Seminoles to a 13-1 record last season — and perhaps an overreaction to the 63-3 Orange Bowl loss to Georgia in which 29 of Florida State's scholarship players did not play. The Seminoles brought in 17 more players through the portal, and it's a pivotal year for quarterback DJ Uiagalelei — a two-time transfer who played at Clemson and Oregon State. The opener against Georgia Tech in Dublin on Aug. 24 will be exciting, but ACC games against Clemson (Oct. 5) and Miami (Oct. 26) come before nonconference games against Notre Dame (Nov. 9) and Florida (Nov. 30). Depth shouldn't be an issue this year, right?

Clemson

Composite rank: 16. USA Today had Clemson at No. 10, but The Athletic ranked the Tigers at No. 22. That's a deviation of 12 spots.

Details: That's a larger gap than usual for the Tigers, who are coming off their first season without at least 10 wins since 2010. That's a testament both ways to the successful program that Dabo Swinney has built, and the Tigers are still the top-ranked ACC team on the overall list. Will that remain the case after the first five weeks of the season – which include the season opener against Georgia, an early season game against NC State and a road trip to Florida State? After that stretch, we'll know more than enough about Clemson's playoff chances.

Oklahoma

Composite rank: No. 14. USA Today has the Sooners at No. 8, but The Athletic has Oklahoma at No. 19. That's a deviation of 11 spots.

Details: The Sooners won 10 games last season, and yet they enter their first season in the SEC with less hype than Texas. Oklahoma averaged 41.7 points per game last season, and quarterback Jackson Arnold has a five-star pedigree. The defense improved in Brent Venables' second season. The Sooners also have a new offensive coordinator in Seth Littrell. The schedule is packed with six teams ranked 13th or higher in the Sporting News Tennessee preseason poll (Sept. 21): Texas (Oct. 12), Ole Miss (Oct. 26), Missouri (Nov. 9), Alabama (Nov. 23) and LSU (Nov. 30). The game against the Vols will be a pressure point knowing former Sooners quarterback Josh Heupel is on the other side.

Miami

Composite rank: N/R. 247Sports.com and The Athletic have Miami at No. 14, while Sporting News, Sports Illustrated and USA Today still don't have the Hurricanes in the top 25. That's a deviation of 11 or more spots.

Details: The Hurricanes feel like one of the trending teams of 2024. That can go either way. Will transfer quarterback Cam Ward turn Miami's fortunes around? The team is 6-10 in ACC play over the last two seasons under Mario Cristobal, and that includes a .500 record in one-point games. The opening game in Florida — the first meeting between the same-state rivals in five years — will be a big one for both teams. This is only the second time Miami has visited the Swamp since 2002. Lose that game, and it will be a while before the Hurricanes can think about being ranked in 2024.