150th Kentucky Derby: Highlights and Predictions

The historic 150th edition of the Kentucky Derby (G1) is scheduled for May 4 and once again the opening game of the Triple Crown takes center stage in the sport. A field of 20 with two also eligible competitors was registered and as usual the cream of 3-year-olds will meet in America's most famous horse race over a challenging distance of 1 1/4 miles.

With such a large field, racing luck will play a key role in deciding the outcome of a race that always presents a handicapping conundrum as runners have to cover a distance of up to 10 furlongs for the first time.

1. Dornoch (20-1, Morning Odds): A full brother (same dam, same sire) to the 2023 Kentucky Derby winner magician He appeared to be a key player in the race until the Blue Grass Stakes (G1) when he was unable to reach his typical early pace and ended up finishing fourth. He needs to get off the rails quickly and should be there in the early stages, but that could be problematic in a field full of leaders.

JOCKEY: Luis Saez; COACH: Danny Gargan

2. Sierra Leone (3-1): His only loss in four starts came in the 2023 Remsen Stakes (G2). Dornoch looked a classic winner, winning the Risen Star Stakes (G2) and Blue Grass with a late-running style. The post may pose a problem as there is a high chance of it being reverted in the initial stages. If the ride is smooth, it should be a great force.

JOCKEY: Tyler Gaffalione; COACH: Chad Brown

3. Mysticism Dan (20-1): Rain would definitely help his cause as he won the Southwest Stakes (G3) by eight lengths in the mud. Was third in the Arkansas Derby (G1) last time out and needs to take a step forward – or get some help from Mother Nature – to be a top contender.

JOCKEY: Brian Hernandez Jr.; COACH: Ken McPeek

4. Catch freedom (8-1): Winning the Louisiana Derby (G2) by 1 3/16 miles was impressive despite an unusually long course. With a late running style, he will need a clean run, and if that happens, there is every reason to believe he can make his presence felt at the end.

JOCKEY: Flavien Prat; COACH: Brad Cox

5. Catalytic (30-1): Finished second in the Florida Derby (G1), but was 13 1/2 lengths behind Wildness . The distance also seems a bit long.

JOCKEY: Jose Ortiz; COACH: Saffie Joseph Jr.

6. Just steel (20-1): Finished a game second in the Arkansas Derby for legendary trainer D. Wayne Lukas, who has four Kentucky Derby victories. Was also second in the Southwest Stakes and may be in the picture at the end if he can repeat his last start.

JOCKEY: Keith Asmussen; COACH: D. Wayne Lukas

7. Honor Marie (20-1): A quick second in the Louisiana Derby makes him an interesting underdog. He also owns a stake winnings Churchill Downs in the 2023 Kentucky Jockey Club Stakes (G2), which is crucial in a race like this.

JOCKEY: Ben Curtis; COACH: Whit Beckman

8th. Just a touch (10-1): Was second in the game in the Blue Grass and got better with every start. It should be part of the early caucus scenario, which is likely to be lively and potentially costly for some participants.

JOCKEY: Florent Geroux; COACH: Brad Cox

9. Encino (SCRATCHED): Encino has been ruled out of consideration for the April 30 Kentucky Derby by trainer Brad Cox.

JOCKEY: Axel Concepcion; COACH: Brad Cox

10. TO password (30-1): As one of two Japanese participants, he enjoys the lesser prestige of the pair. He has only competed twice and won both times, but his lack of racing experience could come back to haunt him here.

JOCKEY: Kazushi Kimura; COACH: Daisuke Takayanagi

11. Forever Young (10-1): He is also undefeated but has started five times. He won the UAE Derby (G2) and Saudi Derby (G3) and should be a major threat. Perhaps he will be the one who will bring Japan its first success in the American classics.

JOCKEY: Ryusei Sakai; COACH: Yoshito Yahagi

12. Track Phantom (20-1): Another starter with high initial speed. He was quite impressive at 1 1/16 miles, but finished second in the 1 1/8 mile Risen Star and fourth in the 1 3/16 mile Louisiana Derby. The high speed and extra distance do not bode well for him.

JOCKEY: Joel Rosario; COACH: Steve Asmussen

13. West Saratoga (50-1): The second most experienced three-year-old in the field with 10 starts (Just Steel has raced 11 times). He finished second on the all-weather Tapeta Footings in the Jeff Ruby Steaks (G3) to force his way into the field, but he won the 2023 Iroquois Stakes (G3) at Churchill Downs. It's hard to throw him out at his morning price.

JOCKEY: Jesus Castanon; COACH: Larry Demeritte

14. Endless (30-1): Won the Jeff Ruby Steaks, but this will be his first dirt race. A challenging place for a first attempt on a new surface.

JOCKEY: Umberto Rispoli; COACH: Michael McCarthy

15. Domestic product (30-1): Scored a gutsy neck-and-neck victory in the Tampa Bay Derby (G3). Has trained extensively since then and deserves a close look as “the other” Chad Brown starter in the race, ridden by Irad Ortiz Jr.

JOCKEY: Irad Ortiz Jr.; COACH: Chad Brown

16. Grand Mo the first (50-1): Finished third in the Florida Derby and Tampa Derby. Seems to be on the upswing but needs to take a big step forward to catch Fierceness, who beat him by 16 lengths in the Florida Derby.

JOCKEY: Emisael Jaramillo; COACH: Victor Barboza Jr.

17. Wildness (5-2): A deserving favorite after a landslide victory in the Florida Derby by 13 1/2 lengths. He has plenty of pace but should be challenged for the early lead. A copy of the Florida Derby should make him a winner here, but he hasn't picked up back-to-back wins yet. No horse has ever won the Derby from 17th position, but that seems more of a statistical quirk than a reason to bet on anyone else.

JOCKEY: John Velazquez; COACH: Todd Pletcher

18. Hochburg (20-1): The very consistent and improving three-year-old has never been worse than second in six career starts. Comes with wins in the Sunland Park Derby (G3) and Santa Anita Derby (G1). The key question concerns the strength of this year's California-based runners.

JOCKEY: Antonio Fresu; COACH: Phil D'Amato

19. Resilience (20-1): Scored a convincing victory in the Wood Memorial Stakes (G2). Before that he was fourth in the Risen Star. His speed numbers are solid, but from 19th place he will need a good run to avoid going too far all the time.

JOCKEY: Junior Alvarado; COACH: Bill Mott

20. man of society (50-1): He was second at 106-1 in the Wood Memorial, but a major drawback was that trainer Danny Gargan would use two horses and they would serve as bookends, drawing post positions 1 and 20. The outside post doesn't help His chances are good, but he will attract some interest in the betting windows, if only because he will be ridden by famous European star Frankie Dettori.

JOCKEY: Frankie Dettori; COACH: Danny Gargan

21. Epic ride (30-1): Third in the Blue Grass with odds of 51-1 in his first start in the field. He needed a scratch to run and got it on April 30 when Encino was pulled from the race.

JOCKEY: Adam Beschizza; COACH: John Ennis

22. Mugatu (30-1): Finished fifth in the Blue Grass at odds of 181-1 and will need another scratch to earn a spot in the starting lineup.

JOCKEY: Joe Talamo; COACH: Jeff Engler

THE CHOICE: Sierra Leone

LIVE LONGSHOT: Only steel

SUPERFECTA: 2-17-11-6